John Kay on the Monty Hall Problem
You can get the entire article on his Web site. Here’s a McNugget’s worth:
The message of both the original Monty Hall problem and of this one is that, even in very simple cases, it is impossible to be certain that a particular mathematical representation of a real problem is a correct description. For people in business who rely on models and for people in financial services who must choose between boxes with uncertain contents every day, that is a disturbing conclusion.